The 2011-2012 NCAA basketball season will be historic for the Duke Blue Devils (32-5 in 2010-2011), as coach Mike Krzyzewski looks to pass his mentor, Bobby Knight, for the all-time Division I
lead in wins. The Blue Devils will also hope to exorcise a disappointing postseason which saw them lose to the Arizona Wildcats in the Sweet Sixteen as a No. 1 seed. Will Duke have the talent to
give the Cameron Crazies yet another national championship? Or will they once again let down the fans and the NCAA Basketball odds makers?
If Kyrie Irving (17.5 ppg in 11 games) returns to Durham, Duke will likely be a prohibitive favorite to cut down the nets in April. Irving was severely limited this season by a toe injury, but the freshman was magnificent when he was on the court. He will be a lottery pick (perhaps the top selection) in the draft this summer if he declares. With labor issues looming in the NBA, there is a slight chance that he could suit up for his sophomore campaign. I doubt, however, that Coach K is counting on this.
Who is returning
The nucleus of Seth Curry, Andre Dawkins, Ryan Kelly, Mason Plumlee, and Miles Plumlee will be called upon to lead the club following the graduation of Nolan Smith (20.6 ppg, 34.0 mpg) and Kyle Singler (16.9 ppg, 34.8 mpg). The returning players will be challenged to replace those seniors in terms of points, leadership, and actual minutes on the court.
Curry (9.0 ppg) and Dawkins (8.1 ppg) will likely start as guards if Irving decides to take the money and run. Both players will have to increase their offensive production on the perimeter to offset the loss of Smith. Curry took over after Irving’s toe injury and managed the offense. He demonstrated some of the offensive spark of his famous dad and big brother in the process, but will need to gain consistency. Dawkins shot 48.1% from the field and 42.7% from behind the arc, so one could definitely see bigger numbers in store for him with more shot opportunities.
Ryan Kelly (6.6 ppg) is an interesting player. At 6-11, he only grabbed 3.7 rpg. He is a hybrid player, however, who is comfortable from shooting anywhere on the floor. He can wreak havoc on a defense with his versatility. It would be nice, though, to see him crash the boards a bit more.
The Plumlee brothers will hold down the middle for the Blue Devils. Mason led the team in rebounding with 8.4, while Miles contributed 4.9 with less playing time. Both brothers need to work on their offensive games in the offseason. Based on the hype they have received, they are a lot closer to Cherokee Parks than Christian Laettner in terms of output.
The Freshman Class
As always, Coach K has harvested a freshman class stocked with McDonald’s All-Americans and ESPNU 100 players. Austin Rivers, a shooting guard from Winter Park (FL) was the Gatorade Player of the
Year in Florida, averaging 28.8 ppg. He is a described as a smart, confident shooter by recruiting analysts. Rivers will see significant playing time next season, and could start if Curry or
Dawkins do not run the offense efficiently.
Another recruit that will bear watching is center Marshall Plumlee from David Gaines’ Christ School (NC) program. The youngest Plumlee brother was the Gatorade Player of the Year in North Carolina, averaging 11.5 ppg and 10.3 rebounds. Recruiting services are a bit lukewarm on him, praising his size and mid-range jumper, but questioning his consistency and strength. Coach K has shown a great deal of faith in the Plumlee brothers, so look for Marshall to play early for the Blue Devils.
Duke will have a very good season in 2011-2012, challenging for another ACC title and No. 1 seed in the NCAA tournament. The Blue Devils’ chance at greatness, however, will hinge on a combination of the decision by Irving, the development of returning players, and the readiness of recruits such as Rivers and Plumlee.